Webinar Details
Sales forecasting is still driven by hope, gut feel, and fear. Real accuracy comes from understanding the buyer’s process, asking hard questions, and coaching deals early...
Session Highlights
In my recent conversation with Scott, we kept coming back to how sales forecasting still runs on gut feel and optimism. Reps avoid hard questions. Leaders accept stories instead of facts. The result is a forecast that looks precise but rarely reflects reality.
Why Forecasting Still Feels Like Art
Sales leaders often say they nail the forecast. Doing so usually requires hours of deal reviews, one off rep interrogation, and manual adjustments that never make it into the CRM.
That is not forecasting. That is heroics.
A real forecast answers three basic questions. Are they going to buy. When will they buy. What still has to happen. If those answers are not clear, the forecast is just narration.
The issue is not tooling or methodology. Reps do not ask blunt, time bound questions. Can you sign by the end of December. Who needs to approve this and how long does that take. What happens if this slips.
Those questions force specificity. Many reps avoid them because they would rather maintain momentum than surface uncertainty.
Great Reps Ask What Matters
Strong sellers are direct.
They ask about security before legal appears. They ask who is on vacation. They ask how procurement actually works at this company. They help buyers navigate internal steps instead of ignoring them.
They sell a process alongside the product. They help the buyer look competent internally. That is where trust is built.
Many reps hesitate because they do not want to appear uninformed. Leaders need to coach the questions reps should ask earlier.
Forecasts Shape Executive Decisions
Executives hire, spend, and plan based on the forecast. When deals slip after confident calls, trust erodes quietly.
Reps often see forecasting as internal reporting. They do not see how their number affects headcount, budgets, and timing across the business. That disconnect leads to careless calls.
A forecast treated casually eventually gets treated casually by everyone else.
Early Stage Forecasting Is Different
At large companies, deal volume smooths out misses.
At smaller companies, one deal can materially change the quarter. Missing by a million dollars at twenty million in ARR reshapes plans.
For early stage teams, forecasting is not just reporting. It is identifying friction early enough to change outcomes.
If the forecast does not help deals move, it is not doing its job.
When MedPIC Stops Helping
Frameworks provide structure. They are useful for building consistency.
They do not replace judgment.
You can complete every field and still lose. You can skip steps and still win when the buyer already knows they want to move.
For forecasting, three elements carry the most weight.
How the decision is made.
How the purchase actually happens.
Whether the problem creates urgency.
Without those, frameworks turn into checklists.
Culture Drives Forecast Behavior
Forecast accuracy reflects leadership behavior.
Fear produces inflated calls or sandbagging. Both distort reality.
Healthy teams use pipeline reviews and QBRs to surface risk early. The goal is visibility, not punishment.
Pressure applied too late only trains reps to manage optics.
What Makes QBRs Effective
Effective QBRs start with facts. What was called. What closed. Where the gap was and why.
They focus on the few deals that matter most. Pain, metrics, decision path, and paperwork are reviewed in detail.
Support needs are made explicit. Marketing, product, leadership involvement.
Meetings stay present. Laptops closed. Phones down. Commitments tracked and revisited.
Attention changes outcomes.
Process as a Guide
Process creates consistency. It prevents chaos.
Over enforcement slows momentum. When buyers are ready, unnecessary steps introduce friction.
Use process as orientation, not confinement.
Why Stages Miss the Signal
Sales stages are usually invented and loosely tied to reality. Probabilities are assumed, not earned.
Stage aging reveals more than stage names. Deals that linger signal unresolved issues.
Long term accuracy improves when forecasts reflect buyer actions rather than internal labels.
The Five Question Discipline
Before every call, write down three to five questions that must be answered for the deal to progress.
This habit tightens discovery and reduces surprises. Over time, forecasts stabilize.
Grounded Forecasting
Forecasting improves with honesty and specificity.
Direct questions. Clear coaching. Process used deliberately.
When forecasts reflect reality, they become a planning tool instead of a stress test.
